Calculations and charts - Italian provinces (by region) - COVID-19 Epidemic
Marcelo Eduardo Redoschi
Based on the Protezione Civile Dataset and adjusted for the ISTAT (National Statistics Institute) regional and provincial nomenclature
Source: dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv, own calculations
Provinces with an augmenting rate of increase in the number of cases
## [1] "2020-04-25"## province total_cases daily_growth trend per_capita_rate
## Nuoro 76 2.70 1.81 0.36
## Savona 1110 5.41 1.77 4.02
## Cuneo 2379 4.39 1.50 4.05
## Latina 465 2.42 1.40 0.81
## Campobasso 221 2.31 1.39 1.00
## Palermo 447 2.76 1.22 0.36
## Lodi 2903 2.36 0.99 12.61
## Caserta 414 1.72 0.90 0.45
## Vicenza 2536 2.13 0.74 2.94
## Firenze 2924 2.63 0.69 2.89
## Verbano-Cusio-Ossola 989 1.96 0.64 6.25
## Sassari 822 1.36 0.62 1.67
## Lucca 1244 1.14 0.51 3.21
## Pisa 833 1.09 0.48 1.99
## Barletta-Andria-Trani 365 1.11 0.46 0.94
## Massa-Carrara 977 1.14 0.45 5.01
## Avellino 436 0.46 0.31 1.04
## Roma 4434 1.67 0.31 1.02
## Teramo 633 0.32 0.26 2.05
## Imperia 1233 1.57 0.26 5.77
## Prato 502 1.83 0.25 1.95
## Alessandria 3180 2.12 0.25 7.55
## Lecce 470 0.86 0.21 0.59
## Cosenza 447 1.82 0.21 0.63
## Novara 2203 1.43 0.19 5.97
## Perugia 985 0.31 0.17 1.50
## Bologna 4102 1.71 0.16 4.04
## Pistoia 607 1.51 0.15 2.08
## Cagliari 230 0.44 0.15 0.53
## Piacenza 3695 1.65 0.14 12.87
## Reggio di Calabria 249 0.40 0.13 0.45
## Sondrio 1130 3.86 0.12 6.24
## Salerno 645 0.31 0.10 0.59
## Parma 3034 0.76 0.08 6.72
## Siena 417 0.48 0.08 1.56
## Torino 11936 2.76 0.08 5.28
## Treviso 2439 0.79 0.05 2.75Provinces with a steady or declining rate of increase
## [1] "2020-04-25"## [1] "2020-04-25"## province total_cases daily_growth trend per_capita_rate
## Crotone 117 0.00 0.00 0.67
## Oristano 52 0.00 0.00 0.33
## Agrigento 132 0.00 0.00 0.30
## Trapani 135 0.00 0.00 0.31
## Ascoli Piceno 276 0.36 0.00 1.33
## Bolzano / Bozen 2476 0.81 -0.01 4.66
## Messina 530 0.95 -0.01 0.85
## Forlì-Cesena 1500 1.01 -0.03 3.80
## Livorno 501 0.40 -0.07 1.50
## Trieste 1177 1.12 -0.07 5.02
## Udine 937 0.21 -0.07 1.77
## Trento 3838 1.64 -0.08 7.09
## Modena 3538 0.54 -0.09 5.02
## Chieti 706 2.77 -0.13 1.83
## Reggio nell'Emilia 4552 0.71 -0.15 8.56
## Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste 1100 0.00 -0.15 8.75
## Siracusa 201 0.50 -0.17 0.50
## Grosseto 400 0.76 -0.18 1.80
## Varese 2407 1.30 -0.19 2.70
## Bergamo 11047 0.41 -0.20 9.91
## Benevento 177 1.14 -0.21 0.64
## Pesaro e Urbino 2411 0.42 -0.21 6.72
## Monza e della Brianza 4417 1.03 -0.24 5.05
## Padova 3802 0.21 -0.24 4.05
## Ancona 1789 0.22 -0.25 3.80
## Catania 943 1.84 -0.26 0.85
## Terni 334 0.00 -0.30 1.48
## Frosinone 547 0.00 -0.31 1.12
## Pescara 1253 0.72 -0.31 3.93
## La Spezia 813 0.49 -0.34 3.70
## Mantova 3082 0.82 -0.34 7.48
## Ravenna 969 0.62 -0.36 2.49
## Matera 186 0.54 -0.37 0.94
## Lecco 2157 0.37 -0.38 6.39
## Potenza 175 0.00 -0.38 0.48
## Fermo 416 0.97 -0.43 2.39
## Macerata 985 0.92 -0.43 3.14
## Brescia 12540 0.52 -0.46 9.91
## Vibo Valentia 72 0.00 -0.47 0.45
## Cremona 5906 0.66 -0.49 16.45
## Napoli 2353 0.81 -0.49 0.76
## Milano 17908 1.24 -0.51 5.51
## Taranto 253 0.00 -0.53 0.44
## Genova 4137 1.10 -0.57 4.92
## Rovigo 416 0.73 -0.59 1.77
## Brindisi 542 1.31 -0.61 1.38
## Pordenone 613 0.16 -0.61 1.96
## Arezzo 610 0.66 -0.63 1.78
## Foggia 978 0.93 -0.65 1.57
## Asti 1376 2.46 -0.66 6.41
## Viterbo 376 1.08 -0.67 1.19
## Como 2942 2.47 -0.67 4.91
## Catanzaro 201 0.00 -0.67 0.56
## Rimini 1934 0.36 -0.69 5.70
## L'Aquila 240 -0.41 -0.69 0.80
## Verona 4473 1.71 -0.71 4.83
## Sud Sardegna 91 0.00 -0.74 0.26
## Venezia 2342 0.09 -0.83 2.74
## Pavia 4036 1.13 -0.92 7.39
## Ferrara 885 0.91 -1.13 2.56
## Vercelli 1075 0.75 -1.25 6.29
## Isernia 53 0.00 -1.29 0.63
## Biella 915 1.67 -1.51 5.21
## Caltanissetta 148 0.00 -1.63 0.56
## Enna 397 0.00 -1.65 2.41
## Ragusa 87 4.82 -1.69 0.27
## Gorizia 174 3.57 -1.73 1.25
## Belluno 1047 0.48 -1.78 5.16
## Bari 1274 0.47 -1.88 1.02
## Rieti 313 0.32 -3.22 2.01Trend is an approximation = (current_rate-cubic_rate)x100
Provinces per capita (expressed as per thousand people) ‰ rate.
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate pos
## Cremona 5906 16.45 1
## Piacenza 3695 12.87 2
## Lodi 2903 12.61 3
## Bergamo 11047 9.91 4
## Brescia 12540 9.91 5
## Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste 1100 8.75 6
## Reggio nell'Emilia 4552 8.56 7
## Alessandria 3180 7.55 8
## Mantova 3082 7.48 9
## Pavia 4036 7.39 10
## Trento 3838 7.09 11
## Pesaro e Urbino 2411 6.72 12
## Parma 3034 6.72 13
## Asti 1376 6.41 14
## Lecco 2157 6.39 15
## Vercelli 1075 6.29 16
## Verbano-Cusio-Ossola 989 6.25 17
## Sondrio 1130 6.24 18
## Novara 2203 5.97 19
## Imperia 1233 5.77 20
## Rimini 1934 5.70 21
## Milano 17908 5.51 22
## Torino 11936 5.28 23
## Biella 915 5.21 24
## Belluno 1047 5.16 25
## Monza e della Brianza 4417 5.05 26
## Trieste 1177 5.02 27
## Modena 3538 5.02 28
## Massa-Carrara 977 5.01 29
## Genova 4137 4.92 30
## Como 2942 4.91 31
## Verona 4473 4.83 32
## Bolzano / Bozen 2476 4.66 33
## Padova 3802 4.05 34
## Cuneo 2379 4.05 35
## Bologna 4102 4.04 36
## Savona 1110 4.02 37
## Pescara 1253 3.93 38
## Forlì-Cesena 1500 3.80 39
## Ancona 1789 3.80 40
## La Spezia 813 3.70 41
## Lucca 1244 3.21 42
## Macerata 985 3.14 43
## Vicenza 2536 2.94 44
## Firenze 2924 2.89 45
## Treviso 2439 2.75 46
## Venezia 2342 2.74 47
## Varese 2407 2.70 48
## Ferrara 885 2.56 49
## Ravenna 969 2.49 50
## Enna 397 2.41 51
## Fermo 416 2.39 52
## Pistoia 607 2.08 53
## Teramo 633 2.05 54
## Rieti 313 2.01 55
## Pisa 833 1.99 56
## Pordenone 613 1.96 57
## Prato 502 1.95 58
## Chieti 706 1.83 59
## Grosseto 400 1.80 60
## Arezzo 610 1.78 61
## Udine 937 1.77 62
## Rovigo 416 1.77 63
## Sassari 822 1.67 64
## Foggia 978 1.57 65
## Siena 417 1.56 66
## Perugia 985 1.50 67
## Livorno 501 1.50 68
## Terni 334 1.48 69
## Brindisi 542 1.38 70
## Ascoli Piceno 276 1.33 71
## Gorizia 174 1.25 72
## Viterbo 376 1.19 73
## Frosinone 547 1.12 74
## Avellino 436 1.04 75
## Roma 4434 1.02 76
## Bari 1274 1.02 77
## Campobasso 221 1.00 78
## Matera 186 0.94 79
## Barletta-Andria-Trani 365 0.94 80
## Catania 943 0.85 81
## Messina 530 0.85 82
## Latina 465 0.81 83
## L'Aquila 240 0.80 84
## Napoli 2353 0.76 85
## Crotone 117 0.67 86
## Benevento 177 0.64 87
## Cosenza 447 0.63 88
## Isernia 53 0.63 89
## Lecce 470 0.59 90
## Salerno 645 0.59 91
## Caltanissetta 148 0.56 92
## Catanzaro 201 0.56 93
## Cagliari 230 0.53 94
## Siracusa 201 0.50 95
## Potenza 175 0.48 96
## Reggio di Calabria 249 0.45 97
## Vibo Valentia 72 0.45 98
## Caserta 414 0.45 99
## Taranto 253 0.44 100
## Nuoro 76 0.36 101
## Palermo 447 0.36 102
## Oristano 52 0.33 103
## Trapani 135 0.31 104
## Agrigento 132 0.30 105
## Ragusa 87 0.27 106
## Sud Sardegna 91 0.26 107## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## 0.2595 0.8936 2.0548 3.2727 5.0175 16.4533Graphs - Total case progression - Provinces by region (for the most recent days observed)
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Chieti 706 1.8309698 2.77 2.90
## L'Aquila 240 0.8025924 -0.41 0.28
## Pescara 1253 3.9290205 0.72 1.03
## Teramo 633 2.0548479 0.32 0.05
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Matera 186 0.9398259 0.54 0.91
## Potenza 175 0.4795046 0.00 0.38
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Catanzaro 201 0.5609574 0.00 0.67
## Cosenza 447 0.6333661 1.82 1.62
## Crotone 117 0.6686478 0.00 0.00
## Reggio di Calabria 249 0.4543721 0.40 0.27
## Vibo Valentia 72 0.4497948 0.00 0.47
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Avellino 436 1.0422992 0.46 0.15
## Benevento 177 0.6389476 1.14 1.35
## Caserta 414 0.4485544 1.72 0.82
## Napoli 2353 0.7627500 0.81 1.31
## Salerno 645 0.5871574 0.31 0.21
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Bologna 4102 4.042897 1.71 1.55
## Ferrara 885 2.560090 0.91 2.04
## Forlì-Cesena 1500 3.801058 1.01 1.04
## Modena 3538 5.015644 0.54 0.63
## Parma 3034 6.717874 0.76 0.68
## Piacenza 3695 12.867749 1.65 1.51
## Ravenna 969 2.488086 0.62 0.98
## Reggio nell'Emilia 4552 8.558144 0.71 0.86
## Rimini 1934 5.704729 0.36 1.06
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Gorizia 174 1.248180 3.57 5.31
## Pordenone 613 1.961393 0.16 0.77
## Trieste 1177 5.019340 1.12 1.19
## Udine 937 1.771967 0.21 0.29
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Frosinone 547 1.1184196 0.00 0.31
## Latina 465 0.8083386 2.42 1.02
## Rieti 313 2.0128229 0.32 3.54
## Roma 4434 1.0211385 1.67 1.37
## Viterbo 376 1.1860076 1.08 1.74
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Genova 4137 4.918091 1.10 1.67
## Imperia 1233 5.765993 1.57 1.30
## La Spezia 813 3.702928 0.49 0.83
## Savona 1110 4.020807 5.41 3.64
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Bergamo 11047 9.911268 0.41 0.61
## Brescia 12540 9.905573 0.52 0.98
## Como 2942 4.909847 2.47 3.15
## Cremona 5906 16.453316 0.66 1.15
## Lecco 2157 6.393384 0.37 0.75
## Lodi 2903 12.610883 2.36 1.37
## Mantova 3082 7.475285 0.82 1.16
## Milano 17908 5.509620 1.24 1.75
## Monza e della Brianza 4417 5.054152 1.03 1.27
## Pavia 4036 7.393458 1.13 2.05
## Sondrio 1130 6.239819 3.86 3.74
## Varese 2407 2.702163 1.30 1.50
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Ancona 1789 3.796464 0.22 0.47
## Ascoli Piceno 276 1.332181 0.36 0.36
## Fermo 416 2.393556 0.97 1.40
## Macerata 985 3.135165 0.92 1.36
## Pesaro e Urbino 2411 6.718011 0.42 0.63
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Campobasso 221 0.9989242 2.31 0.92
## Isernia 53 0.6281184 0.00 1.29
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Alessandria 3180 7.548352 2.12 1.87
## Asti 1376 6.410794 2.46 3.12
## Biella 915 5.211151 1.67 3.18
## Cuneo 2379 4.052134 4.39 2.89
## Novara 2203 5.969898 1.43 1.24
## Torino 11936 5.282531 2.76 2.68
## Verbano-Cusio-Ossola 989 6.245698 1.96 1.31
## Vercelli 1075 6.289823 0.75 2.00
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Bari 1274 1.0175768 0.47 2.36
## Barletta-Andria-Trani 365 0.9358710 1.11 0.65
## Brindisi 542 1.3792226 1.31 1.92
## Foggia 978 1.5718848 0.93 1.58
## Lecce 470 0.5910953 0.86 0.65
## Taranto 253 0.4386604 0.00 0.53
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Cagliari 230 0.5335956 0.44 0.29
## Nuoro 76 0.3644210 2.70 0.89
## Oristano 52 0.3297254 0.00 0.00
## Sassari 822 1.6721898 1.36 0.74
## Sud Sardegna 91 0.2594625 0.00 0.74
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Agrigento 132 0.3035390 0.00 0.00
## Caltanissetta 148 0.5638997 0.00 1.63
## Catania 943 0.8513120 1.84 2.10
## Enna 397 2.4091560 0.00 1.65
## Messina 530 0.8454623 0.95 0.96
## Palermo 447 0.3568612 2.76 1.54
## Ragusa 87 0.2711184 4.82 6.51
## Siracusa 201 0.5034767 0.50 0.67
## Trapani 135 0.3135947 0.00 0.00
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Arezzo 610 1.780221 0.66 1.29
## Firenze 2924 2.891188 2.63 1.94
## Grosseto 400 1.804818 0.76 0.93
## Livorno 501 1.496273 0.40 0.47
## Lucca 1244 3.207211 1.14 0.62
## Massa-Carrara 977 5.013393 1.14 0.69
## Pisa 833 1.987891 1.09 0.61
## Pistoia 607 2.075405 1.51 1.35
## Prato 502 1.947881 1.83 1.58
## Siena 417 1.560646 0.48 0.40
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Bolzano / Bozen 2476 4.661338 0.81 0.82
## Trento 3838 7.092985 1.64 1.73
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Perugia 985 1.500651 0.31 0.14
## Terni 334 1.480280 0.00 0.30
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate
## Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste 1100 8.753362 0
## three_day_rate
## 0.15
## [1] "2020-04-25"
## province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
## Belluno 1047 5.158906 0.48 2.26
## Padova 3802 4.053702 0.21 0.45
## Rovigo 416 1.770687 0.73 1.32
## Treviso 2439 2.747222 0.79 0.74
## Venezia 2342 2.744516 0.09 0.91
## Verona 4473 4.827862 1.71 2.41
## Vicenza 2536 2.940569 2.13 1.39
