Based on the Protezione Civile Dataset and adjusted for the ISTAT (National Statistics Institute) regional and provincial nomenclature

Source: dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv, own calculations

Provinces with an augmenting rate of increase in the number of cases

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##               province total_cases daily_growth trend per_capita_rate
##                  Nuoro          76         2.70  1.81            0.36
##                 Savona        1110         5.41  1.77            4.02
##                  Cuneo        2379         4.39  1.50            4.05
##                 Latina         465         2.42  1.40            0.81
##             Campobasso         221         2.31  1.39            1.00
##                Palermo         447         2.76  1.22            0.36
##                   Lodi        2903         2.36  0.99           12.61
##                Caserta         414         1.72  0.90            0.45
##                Vicenza        2536         2.13  0.74            2.94
##                Firenze        2924         2.63  0.69            2.89
##   Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         989         1.96  0.64            6.25
##                Sassari         822         1.36  0.62            1.67
##                  Lucca        1244         1.14  0.51            3.21
##                   Pisa         833         1.09  0.48            1.99
##  Barletta-Andria-Trani         365         1.11  0.46            0.94
##          Massa-Carrara         977         1.14  0.45            5.01
##               Avellino         436         0.46  0.31            1.04
##                   Roma        4434         1.67  0.31            1.02
##                 Teramo         633         0.32  0.26            2.05
##                Imperia        1233         1.57  0.26            5.77
##                  Prato         502         1.83  0.25            1.95
##            Alessandria        3180         2.12  0.25            7.55
##                  Lecce         470         0.86  0.21            0.59
##                Cosenza         447         1.82  0.21            0.63
##                 Novara        2203         1.43  0.19            5.97
##                Perugia         985         0.31  0.17            1.50
##                Bologna        4102         1.71  0.16            4.04
##                Pistoia         607         1.51  0.15            2.08
##               Cagliari         230         0.44  0.15            0.53
##               Piacenza        3695         1.65  0.14           12.87
##     Reggio di Calabria         249         0.40  0.13            0.45
##                Sondrio        1130         3.86  0.12            6.24
##                Salerno         645         0.31  0.10            0.59
##                  Parma        3034         0.76  0.08            6.72
##                  Siena         417         0.48  0.08            1.56
##                 Torino       11936         2.76  0.08            5.28
##                Treviso        2439         0.79  0.05            2.75

Provinces with a steady or declining rate of increase

## [1] "2020-04-25"
## [1] "2020-04-25"
##                        province total_cases daily_growth trend per_capita_rate
##                         Crotone         117         0.00  0.00            0.67
##                        Oristano          52         0.00  0.00            0.33
##                       Agrigento         132         0.00  0.00            0.30
##                         Trapani         135         0.00  0.00            0.31
##                   Ascoli Piceno         276         0.36  0.00            1.33
##                 Bolzano / Bozen        2476         0.81 -0.01            4.66
##                         Messina         530         0.95 -0.01            0.85
##                    Forlì-Cesena        1500         1.01 -0.03            3.80
##                         Livorno         501         0.40 -0.07            1.50
##                         Trieste        1177         1.12 -0.07            5.02
##                           Udine         937         0.21 -0.07            1.77
##                          Trento        3838         1.64 -0.08            7.09
##                          Modena        3538         0.54 -0.09            5.02
##                          Chieti         706         2.77 -0.13            1.83
##              Reggio nell'Emilia        4552         0.71 -0.15            8.56
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1100         0.00 -0.15            8.75
##                        Siracusa         201         0.50 -0.17            0.50
##                        Grosseto         400         0.76 -0.18            1.80
##                          Varese        2407         1.30 -0.19            2.70
##                         Bergamo       11047         0.41 -0.20            9.91
##                       Benevento         177         1.14 -0.21            0.64
##                 Pesaro e Urbino        2411         0.42 -0.21            6.72
##           Monza e della Brianza        4417         1.03 -0.24            5.05
##                          Padova        3802         0.21 -0.24            4.05
##                          Ancona        1789         0.22 -0.25            3.80
##                         Catania         943         1.84 -0.26            0.85
##                           Terni         334         0.00 -0.30            1.48
##                       Frosinone         547         0.00 -0.31            1.12
##                         Pescara        1253         0.72 -0.31            3.93
##                       La Spezia         813         0.49 -0.34            3.70
##                         Mantova        3082         0.82 -0.34            7.48
##                         Ravenna         969         0.62 -0.36            2.49
##                          Matera         186         0.54 -0.37            0.94
##                           Lecco        2157         0.37 -0.38            6.39
##                         Potenza         175         0.00 -0.38            0.48
##                           Fermo         416         0.97 -0.43            2.39
##                        Macerata         985         0.92 -0.43            3.14
##                         Brescia       12540         0.52 -0.46            9.91
##                   Vibo Valentia          72         0.00 -0.47            0.45
##                         Cremona        5906         0.66 -0.49           16.45
##                          Napoli        2353         0.81 -0.49            0.76
##                          Milano       17908         1.24 -0.51            5.51
##                         Taranto         253         0.00 -0.53            0.44
##                          Genova        4137         1.10 -0.57            4.92
##                          Rovigo         416         0.73 -0.59            1.77
##                        Brindisi         542         1.31 -0.61            1.38
##                       Pordenone         613         0.16 -0.61            1.96
##                          Arezzo         610         0.66 -0.63            1.78
##                          Foggia         978         0.93 -0.65            1.57
##                            Asti        1376         2.46 -0.66            6.41
##                         Viterbo         376         1.08 -0.67            1.19
##                            Como        2942         2.47 -0.67            4.91
##                       Catanzaro         201         0.00 -0.67            0.56
##                          Rimini        1934         0.36 -0.69            5.70
##                        L'Aquila         240        -0.41 -0.69            0.80
##                          Verona        4473         1.71 -0.71            4.83
##                    Sud Sardegna          91         0.00 -0.74            0.26
##                         Venezia        2342         0.09 -0.83            2.74
##                           Pavia        4036         1.13 -0.92            7.39
##                         Ferrara         885         0.91 -1.13            2.56
##                        Vercelli        1075         0.75 -1.25            6.29
##                         Isernia          53         0.00 -1.29            0.63
##                          Biella         915         1.67 -1.51            5.21
##                   Caltanissetta         148         0.00 -1.63            0.56
##                            Enna         397         0.00 -1.65            2.41
##                          Ragusa          87         4.82 -1.69            0.27
##                         Gorizia         174         3.57 -1.73            1.25
##                         Belluno        1047         0.48 -1.78            5.16
##                            Bari        1274         0.47 -1.88            1.02
##                           Rieti         313         0.32 -3.22            2.01

Trend is an approximation = (current_rate-cubic_rate)x100

Provinces per capita (expressed as per thousand people) ‰ rate.

##                   province_name total_cases per_capita_rate pos
##                         Cremona        5906           16.45   1
##                        Piacenza        3695           12.87   2
##                            Lodi        2903           12.61   3
##                         Bergamo       11047            9.91   4
##                         Brescia       12540            9.91   5
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1100            8.75   6
##              Reggio nell'Emilia        4552            8.56   7
##                     Alessandria        3180            7.55   8
##                         Mantova        3082            7.48   9
##                           Pavia        4036            7.39  10
##                          Trento        3838            7.09  11
##                 Pesaro e Urbino        2411            6.72  12
##                           Parma        3034            6.72  13
##                            Asti        1376            6.41  14
##                           Lecco        2157            6.39  15
##                        Vercelli        1075            6.29  16
##            Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         989            6.25  17
##                         Sondrio        1130            6.24  18
##                          Novara        2203            5.97  19
##                         Imperia        1233            5.77  20
##                          Rimini        1934            5.70  21
##                          Milano       17908            5.51  22
##                          Torino       11936            5.28  23
##                          Biella         915            5.21  24
##                         Belluno        1047            5.16  25
##           Monza e della Brianza        4417            5.05  26
##                         Trieste        1177            5.02  27
##                          Modena        3538            5.02  28
##                   Massa-Carrara         977            5.01  29
##                          Genova        4137            4.92  30
##                            Como        2942            4.91  31
##                          Verona        4473            4.83  32
##                 Bolzano / Bozen        2476            4.66  33
##                          Padova        3802            4.05  34
##                           Cuneo        2379            4.05  35
##                         Bologna        4102            4.04  36
##                          Savona        1110            4.02  37
##                         Pescara        1253            3.93  38
##                    Forlì-Cesena        1500            3.80  39
##                          Ancona        1789            3.80  40
##                       La Spezia         813            3.70  41
##                           Lucca        1244            3.21  42
##                        Macerata         985            3.14  43
##                         Vicenza        2536            2.94  44
##                         Firenze        2924            2.89  45
##                         Treviso        2439            2.75  46
##                         Venezia        2342            2.74  47
##                          Varese        2407            2.70  48
##                         Ferrara         885            2.56  49
##                         Ravenna         969            2.49  50
##                            Enna         397            2.41  51
##                           Fermo         416            2.39  52
##                         Pistoia         607            2.08  53
##                          Teramo         633            2.05  54
##                           Rieti         313            2.01  55
##                            Pisa         833            1.99  56
##                       Pordenone         613            1.96  57
##                           Prato         502            1.95  58
##                          Chieti         706            1.83  59
##                        Grosseto         400            1.80  60
##                          Arezzo         610            1.78  61
##                           Udine         937            1.77  62
##                          Rovigo         416            1.77  63
##                         Sassari         822            1.67  64
##                          Foggia         978            1.57  65
##                           Siena         417            1.56  66
##                         Perugia         985            1.50  67
##                         Livorno         501            1.50  68
##                           Terni         334            1.48  69
##                        Brindisi         542            1.38  70
##                   Ascoli Piceno         276            1.33  71
##                         Gorizia         174            1.25  72
##                         Viterbo         376            1.19  73
##                       Frosinone         547            1.12  74
##                        Avellino         436            1.04  75
##                            Roma        4434            1.02  76
##                            Bari        1274            1.02  77
##                      Campobasso         221            1.00  78
##                          Matera         186            0.94  79
##           Barletta-Andria-Trani         365            0.94  80
##                         Catania         943            0.85  81
##                         Messina         530            0.85  82
##                          Latina         465            0.81  83
##                        L'Aquila         240            0.80  84
##                          Napoli        2353            0.76  85
##                         Crotone         117            0.67  86
##                       Benevento         177            0.64  87
##                         Cosenza         447            0.63  88
##                         Isernia          53            0.63  89
##                           Lecce         470            0.59  90
##                         Salerno         645            0.59  91
##                   Caltanissetta         148            0.56  92
##                       Catanzaro         201            0.56  93
##                        Cagliari         230            0.53  94
##                        Siracusa         201            0.50  95
##                         Potenza         175            0.48  96
##              Reggio di Calabria         249            0.45  97
##                   Vibo Valentia          72            0.45  98
##                         Caserta         414            0.45  99
##                         Taranto         253            0.44 100
##                           Nuoro          76            0.36 101
##                         Palermo         447            0.36 102
##                        Oristano          52            0.33 103
##                         Trapani         135            0.31 104
##                       Agrigento         132            0.30 105
##                          Ragusa          87            0.27 106
##                    Sud Sardegna          91            0.26 107
##    Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
##  0.2595  0.8936  2.0548  3.2727  5.0175 16.4533

Graphs - Total case progression - Provinces by region (for the most recent days observed)

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##  province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##         Chieti         706       1.8309698         2.77           2.90
##       L'Aquila         240       0.8025924        -0.41           0.28
##        Pescara        1253       3.9290205         0.72           1.03
##         Teramo         633       2.0548479         0.32           0.05

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##  province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##         Matera         186       0.9398259         0.54           0.91
##        Potenza         175       0.4795046         0.00           0.38

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##       province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Catanzaro         201       0.5609574         0.00           0.67
##             Cosenza         447       0.6333661         1.82           1.62
##             Crotone         117       0.6686478         0.00           0.00
##  Reggio di Calabria         249       0.4543721         0.40           0.27
##       Vibo Valentia          72       0.4497948         0.00           0.47

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##  province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##       Avellino         436       1.0422992         0.46           0.15
##      Benevento         177       0.6389476         1.14           1.35
##        Caserta         414       0.4485544         1.72           0.82
##         Napoli        2353       0.7627500         0.81           1.31
##        Salerno         645       0.5871574         0.31           0.21

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##       province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##             Bologna        4102        4.042897         1.71           1.55
##             Ferrara         885        2.560090         0.91           2.04
##        Forlì-Cesena        1500        3.801058         1.01           1.04
##              Modena        3538        5.015644         0.54           0.63
##               Parma        3034        6.717874         0.76           0.68
##            Piacenza        3695       12.867749         1.65           1.51
##             Ravenna         969        2.488086         0.62           0.98
##  Reggio nell'Emilia        4552        8.558144         0.71           0.86
##              Rimini        1934        5.704729         0.36           1.06

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##  province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##        Gorizia         174        1.248180         3.57           5.31
##      Pordenone         613        1.961393         0.16           0.77
##        Trieste        1177        5.019340         1.12           1.19
##          Udine         937        1.771967         0.21           0.29

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##  province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##      Frosinone         547       1.1184196         0.00           0.31
##         Latina         465       0.8083386         2.42           1.02
##          Rieti         313       2.0128229         0.32           3.54
##           Roma        4434       1.0211385         1.67           1.37
##        Viterbo         376       1.1860076         1.08           1.74

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##  province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##         Genova        4137        4.918091         1.10           1.67
##        Imperia        1233        5.765993         1.57           1.30
##      La Spezia         813        3.702928         0.49           0.83
##         Savona        1110        4.020807         5.41           3.64

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##          province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##                Bergamo       11047        9.911268         0.41           0.61
##                Brescia       12540        9.905573         0.52           0.98
##                   Como        2942        4.909847         2.47           3.15
##                Cremona        5906       16.453316         0.66           1.15
##                  Lecco        2157        6.393384         0.37           0.75
##                   Lodi        2903       12.610883         2.36           1.37
##                Mantova        3082        7.475285         0.82           1.16
##                 Milano       17908        5.509620         1.24           1.75
##  Monza e della Brianza        4417        5.054152         1.03           1.27
##                  Pavia        4036        7.393458         1.13           2.05
##                Sondrio        1130        6.239819         3.86           3.74
##                 Varese        2407        2.702163         1.30           1.50

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##    province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Ancona        1789        3.796464         0.22           0.47
##    Ascoli Piceno         276        1.332181         0.36           0.36
##            Fermo         416        2.393556         0.97           1.40
##         Macerata         985        3.135165         0.92           1.36
##  Pesaro e Urbino        2411        6.718011         0.42           0.63

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##  province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##     Campobasso         221       0.9989242         2.31           0.92
##        Isernia          53       0.6281184         0.00           1.29

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##         province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##           Alessandria        3180        7.548352         2.12           1.87
##                  Asti        1376        6.410794         2.46           3.12
##                Biella         915        5.211151         1.67           3.18
##                 Cuneo        2379        4.052134         4.39           2.89
##                Novara        2203        5.969898         1.43           1.24
##                Torino       11936        5.282531         2.76           2.68
##  Verbano-Cusio-Ossola         989        6.245698         1.96           1.31
##              Vercelli        1075        6.289823         0.75           2.00

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##          province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##                   Bari        1274       1.0175768         0.47           2.36
##  Barletta-Andria-Trani         365       0.9358710         1.11           0.65
##               Brindisi         542       1.3792226         1.31           1.92
##                 Foggia         978       1.5718848         0.93           1.58
##                  Lecce         470       0.5910953         0.86           0.65
##                Taranto         253       0.4386604         0.00           0.53

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##  province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##       Cagliari         230       0.5335956         0.44           0.29
##          Nuoro          76       0.3644210         2.70           0.89
##       Oristano          52       0.3297254         0.00           0.00
##        Sassari         822       1.6721898         1.36           0.74
##   Sud Sardegna          91       0.2594625         0.00           0.74

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##  province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##      Agrigento         132       0.3035390         0.00           0.00
##  Caltanissetta         148       0.5638997         0.00           1.63
##        Catania         943       0.8513120         1.84           2.10
##           Enna         397       2.4091560         0.00           1.65
##        Messina         530       0.8454623         0.95           0.96
##        Palermo         447       0.3568612         2.76           1.54
##         Ragusa          87       0.2711184         4.82           6.51
##       Siracusa         201       0.5034767         0.50           0.67
##        Trapani         135       0.3135947         0.00           0.00

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##  province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##         Arezzo         610        1.780221         0.66           1.29
##        Firenze        2924        2.891188         2.63           1.94
##       Grosseto         400        1.804818         0.76           0.93
##        Livorno         501        1.496273         0.40           0.47
##          Lucca        1244        3.207211         1.14           0.62
##  Massa-Carrara         977        5.013393         1.14           0.69
##           Pisa         833        1.987891         1.09           0.61
##        Pistoia         607        2.075405         1.51           1.35
##          Prato         502        1.947881         1.83           1.58
##          Siena         417        1.560646         0.48           0.40

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##    province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##  Bolzano / Bozen        2476        4.661338         0.81           0.82
##           Trento        3838        7.092985         1.64           1.73

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##  province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##        Perugia         985        1.500651         0.31           0.14
##          Terni         334        1.480280         0.00           0.30

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##                   province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate
##  Valle d'Aosta / Vallée d'Aoste        1100        8.753362            0
##  three_day_rate
##            0.15

## [1] "2020-04-25"
##  province_name total_cases per_capita_rate percent_rate three_day_rate
##        Belluno        1047        5.158906         0.48           2.26
##         Padova        3802        4.053702         0.21           0.45
##         Rovigo         416        1.770687         0.73           1.32
##        Treviso        2439        2.747222         0.79           0.74
##        Venezia        2342        2.744516         0.09           0.91
##         Verona        4473        4.827862         1.71           2.41
##        Vicenza        2536        2.940569         2.13           1.39